A new democratic government led by President Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has taken power in Belarus, but the newborn democracy is far from stable. The Russian Federation has thus far acted slowly and has not made any direct responses, apart from vague threats of sanctions and possible future intervention. The United States, on the other hand, has congratulated Belarus on its newfound freedom and is believed to be directly supporting the new government (though the assassination is still believed to have been entirely domestic in nature). The landlocked Eastern European nation saw 26 years of dictatorial rule come to an end this week.
An anonymous source has informed The Washington Post that there is serious concern that the current plan of action was poorly thought out. The source suggested that internal discussions between the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Department of Defense (DoD) are growing hostile as the two agencies struggle to formulate a conclusive plan which both parties can agree to pursue.
In an open memo to President Biden, the CIA accused the DoD of “worryingly aggressive” and “warmongering” behavior. The deployment of U.S. troops inside Belarus near the Russian border would certainly be an act of war, so both the CIA and the DoD must tread carefully. There are growing concerns inside the CIA that the DoD may initiate an armed conflict, which one insider described as “practically starting World War III”. The CIA memo also questioned the leadership of the DoD, reiterating concerns that they were “dangerous,” while the memo also called the DoD’s plan “unnecessarily violent and foolish.”
“Though the Central Intelligence Agency also supports the cause of Belarusian democracy and the sanctity of free elections,” the memo says, “American Troops in the region, without the support of our allies, will only tarnish the image of America in the view of our allies and our rivals. The right approach, alongside allies, with methodical deliberation, and with the full range of American Diplomatic effort, would have been infinitely preferable”.
The CIA’s full memo can be found here.
As for Russia, they have yet to take military action in Belarus, but it appears to be preparing for conflict following the Federation’s recent nationalization of the Sukhoi and Tactical Missile Corporation. Russian state media network RT has called for the U.S. to not deploy troops in Belarus, and Russian President Vladimir Putin called the U.S. involvement in Belarus “a blatant act of American imperialism” before warning “if this can happen in Belarus, this can happen anywhere.”