Transcript:
Joe 0:03
All right. Hello, everyone. Welcome to Average Cup of Joe with Joe, our emergency podcast version of Joe In the Morning. Today with me, I have Yuley all the way from Belarus. And Hank, from a private Washington security firm. So secret, I don’t even know its name. So let’s dive right in. Yuley, what’s happening in Belarus?
Yuley 0:31
Oh, well, first of all, thank you for having me on your show. Belaruse is undergoing the biggest transformation a country has gone through since the breakup of the Soviet Union. You know, for decades we’ve languished under, you know, oppressive puppet governments controlled by Russia. And this is really the first first time that a breath of fresh air can be felt in the country. Yeah, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that keeping the new government in power is possibly the most important thing that proponents of democracy can do to help Belarus into the 21st century.
Joe 1:12
Wow, that’s powerful stuff. Hank, you step in, how will this impact the geodynamic, especially Russia, which is right next door?
Hank 1:21
Alright, thank you again, for having me this afternoon and best wishes again to Yuley and I hope you stay safe out there in Belarus. Simply put, if they have a democracy, if they can keep it, this is a dangerous situation for the world, even if it is a bright light of democracy in Europe. Russia, I’m sure will not enjoy having a state extensively closer to the west so close to its doorstep. And I would wager that the Sviatlana’s government should be prepared to respond to any kind of aggression from Russia, they will not take this lying down. It’s frankly an embarrassment for President Putin when at a time when his popularity is starting to flag because of his COVID response.
Yuley 2:06
I can’t agree more, Hank. You know, President Tsikanouskaya is obviously most concerned with the Belarusian people, but we have to wonder, you know, when is the other shoe going to drop on, you know, the traditional, you know, the traditional precursors to Russian military action is the Russian defense industry. And they’ve been conspicuously quiet. Um, you know, we haven’t seen any true build ups, we haven’t seen production going into overdrive, like it would or like it did before the illegal occupation of Crimea. You know, we have to wonder what other options are being considered and how to defend ourselves from them. Because Belarus is able to be victimized by Russia as they surely will, then you know, who’s next? Could it be Germany? Could it be Britain? Could it be the United States? This is a global issue and a global concern.
Joe 2:53
So that does beg to question, is Russia off their game?
Hank 2:58
I would say so, as someone who’s been doing analysis and monitoring Russia for longest time, it really seems like Putin, he’s aging, he’s losing his edge, if you will, or someone, frankly, is, normally at a time like this, as Yuley said, you would see defense spending going into overdrive, all these companies just going bending over backwards to make sure that they’re delivering for Putin, because that, you know, the punishments in Russia are rather steep if you don’t, but the fact that they’re not, I’m sure Russia’s planning or response, but as of right now, they they seem to be stumbling, for sure.
Joe 3:35
Well, here’s hoping that Putin isn’t listening to this podcast. And here’s hoping it doesn’t know where you live, Hank. So we’ll take a quick break. Because we do have a message from our sponsors, and our sponsors hellofresh.
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All right, let’s dive back into Russia and Belarus. Now let’s actually pivot. Let’s talk about the US. What’s the US’s role in this conflict up until now? And what’s next on the horizon?
Yuley 4:38
Well, I can speak as someone who’s been on the ground for the protests, and of course we appreciate all the, you know, the moral support and the statements of solidarity from many Americans, Belarusian Americans and otherwise, who support our movement for democracy. Um, but in my opinion and respectfully to the new administration, because I really realize that just taking office but, you know, if they want the democracy of Belarus to survive, they do need to nurture it a little bit. Um, you know, the fact remains that despite the last four years, the United States is still the most powerful broker in the world, and certainly has many allies in Europe. And we’ve really looked to see, you know, what, how can they ensure our, you know, our survival as a democracy? Will they protect us when the time comes? And you know, without those statements, I don’t know if Belarusians can sleep at night.
Hank 5:31
You know what you’ll forgive me for maybe being a cautious old man, but Belarus I mean, we congratulate you on your democracy, but the US, Belarus isn’t part of NATO. Belarus is not yet under any treaty obligations. So while the US certainly supports the New Democracy, once again, I must restate, they must definitely tread carefully as far as official military action in the country. This is definitely the realm where you’re going to see more covert US action more from their intelligence agencies and from US companies, if you want. The US wants to see the Belarusian democracy survive. They can’t go in guns blazing, you know, so to speak.
Joe 6:13
Well, Hank, let me step in, because I don’t think people are saying that the US should go in guns blazing. But this seems to be a nascent democracy. I mean, Lukashenko was called Europe’s last dictator. And now it looks like we might finally see the option for a page turn. So, isn’t that the US has responsibility and the responsibility of democracies around the world to step in and say we support this new administration?
Hank 6:39
Oh of course, of course.
Yuley 6:42
Well, I actually, I agree with Hank, being that, currently, the United States does not have a treaty obligation to protect Belarus. Um, but I hope I’m not speaking out of turn here. And I certainly am not speaking in an official capacity for the new Belarusian government, but perhaps there should be, you know, um, Belarus has never been a part of NATO. But why shouldn’t they be? is mutual defense, not admirable. Should we not be looking for new alliances with the new government? You know, I don’t think there would be a great opposition among common Belarusians to form an alliance with the rest of Europe. I mean, you see, we’ve had an alliance with Russia for decades, and look where it got us. Thousands dead in the street, the electricity isn’t staying on. Um, you know, maybe it is time for a pivot to the West, Hank might be right.
Joe 7:31
Well, that’s some bold words. And we are out of time, but I do want to give my heartfelt thanks to Yuley and Hank for hopping on. And I look forward to seeing everyone during our regularly scheduled Morning Cup of Joe with Joe. Everyone, stay safe and have a good night.
Yuley 7:49
Thanks for having us.
Hank 7:51
Thank you for having us.
